GROUP A
Group A could be one of the most competitive groups as there is no outstanding team in it. Every one of Poland, Russia, Czech Republic and Greece will fancy their chances of qualifying, and every one of them has a chance of making the second round.
Russia are the favourites for this group but I think both Poland and Greece could do well here.
Poland have home advantage and will be backed by a fervent home crowd, while they have four players who could be key to their progress. Three of them have just experienced a double winning season in the Bundesliga with Borussia Dortmund. Full-back Lucas Piszczek, winger Jakub Blaszczykowki and striker Robert Lewandowski will arrive confident, while Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny is never one short on self belief.
Lewandowski has had a brilliant season for Dortmund, scoring 22 times in 34 games. He has been as high as 100.0 in the top scorer market, but is now down to 25.0. That could still represent some decent trading value, he has three games in the group stage where he could score in all of them and that price could come in if he does get off to a fast start.
Greece are the outsiders of the group at 2.74 to qualify, but I feel they are well worth a play at that price. They topped a qualifying group involving Croatia with seven wins and three draws from ten games, and conceded just five times in those 10 games.
Like in 2004 when they sprung the biggest shock in tournament football history and won the European Championship, they are well drilled with a solid defence, and a strong defence is key to progress in tournaments these days.
The teams that have caused upsets in major tournament since then have all been based around a miserly defence with one or two attacking talents who could create something out of nothing, such as Uruguay in the 2010 World Cup and last year's Copa America.
Russia are rightly favourites for the group, but I think the battle for second is between Greece and Poland, and Greece represent the value.
GROUP B
Group B is easily the most competitive group, with Germany, Holland and Portugal all in it, as well as a decent Denmark side.
Denmark topped a qualifying group that included Portugal so they will not fear them, and I fancy they will cause a couple of the big three in this group some problems, but it is hard to see them qualifying.
Germany are my favourites for the tournament and I think they will win the group, they have a magnificent squad and can switch between several styles to get the result they need. They won 10/10 in qualifying and the difficult group may be a blessing in disguise for them, they will be match hardened come the knockout stage.
Should they win the group they will face the runners-up in Group A, a fixture which will hold no fear for them.
The battle for second could be more interesting, and whoever you think will take it represents a very solid trade for the outright market.
Both Portugal and Holland will fancy beating the winners of Group A in the quarter-finals, which will see them in to the semi-finals and the prices of 8.4 on Holland and 20 on Portugal will be much reduced at that stage.
I know a lot of people are keen on Holland's chances but I think they are vulnerable at the back and the value is Portugal to get that second qualification spot. Holland's attacking riches are excellent, but the centre-backs of John Heitinga and Joris Mathijsen are well below top class, right-back Gregory van der Wiel has suffered an injury hit season, and there is no obvious choice at left-back.
In front of that defence will be Nigel de Jong, who has struggled to get in the Man City team this season, and the veteran Mark van Bommel, whose contribution at this level will surely be limited these days.
Portugal relied on a play-off to get here, but they were magnificent in destroying Bosnia 6-2 at home, with Ronaldo scoring twice. The key to their success will be getting the best out of Ronaldo, as he is good enough to carry the rest of the team to a fair degree.
They also have Nani to play on the other wing, who will be capable of troubling the best defences at the tournament. At 20.0 they are a great trade for the tournament and will be below half that should they reach the semi-final stage, which is entirely plausible if they get out of the group.
GROUP C
It is difficult to see beyond Spain and Italy getting through the group here.
Spain are the favourites but I don't think they represent any value at all. They are missing David Villa, which will be a huge loss for them, and their key players from Real Madrid and Barcelona have had a long and tiring season, both reaching the Champions League semi-finals.
Spain's best players have been involved in hectic summers in 2008 and 2010 and are regulars in the latter stages of the Champions League and this is bound to catch up with them at some point, both physically and mentally. Their style is very much based on that of Barcelona and there have been signs this year that others teams are learning how to take on the Catalans.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them reach the final, but I think Germany will have their number if they get there.
Italy are very under the radar for this tournament but they should be able to get through the group stage. They conceded just twice in 10 qualifying games and, as in 2006 when they won the World Cup, they come here on the back of a major scandal rocking the domestic game.
There are no questions at all over their defence, but the highest scorers in their squad all have just 10 goals, so they are relatively inexperienced in that department.
The Republic, managed by an Italian in Giovanni Trapattoni, are also a side based around a strong defence, conceding just seven in 10 qualifying game.
This group is second favourite in the group with most goals, but I think it is worth a lay at 4.1. Even Spain don't score many goals, their dominance of possession means they rarely concede, but they have found it tough to break international defences down.
GROUP D
England's group and it is difficult to know how the Three Lions will get on in Poland and the Ukraine. On the one hand they look a cracking lay at 1.64 to qualify from the group; they have a number of injuries, especially in midfield, and have underachieved in tournaments for a number of years.
However, the appointment of Roy Hodgson could be a shrewd move. As mentioned previously the key to upsets in major tournaments is a tight and well-organised defence, which is a staple of any Hodgson side, and enough danger in attack to score once or twice a game.
While much-maligned for most of the season Andy Carroll finished the campaign in superb form, and I would be keen to see Hodgson start with him. Carroll was at his strong and aggressive best in the final month of the season, and he looked to be hitting top form and peak fitness. If he can repeat these performances then he could cause defences less used to this approach some problems.
I do think the value lies in laying England to qualify though, as a loss to France in the first game will see this price trade higher, allowing us to make a profit, but it wouldn't surprise me either if England did better than many people expected.
Laurent Blanc has done a superb job in turning around the fortunes of the French since their mutinous campaign in South Africa. They won in Germany recently and also came from 2-0 down against Iceland to win 3-2 last week.
They should have no problem qualifying, and in Karim Benzema they have a striker who could be a real contender for the top goalscorer award. He has come of age for Real Madrid this season, becoming a regular starter under Jose Mourinho, and the group means he could well bag a few before the knockout stages begin.
If England do fail to get through the group then I think it will be Sweden who take their place. They netted 31 times in qualifying behind Holland as best runner-up and have earned a reputation as a free-flowing side capable of scoring goals.
Their key man is likely to be Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and he could also be a good trader in the top scorer market, should the Swedes get into the knockout stages.
CONCLUSION
My bets for the tournament before the action begins will be:
Germany to win @ 4.2
Portugal to win @ 20.0 - with a view to trading this off at QF or SF stage
Greece to qualify @ 2.74
Lewandowski top scorer @ 25.0 - to trade
Lay Group C as top scoring group @ 4.0
Lay England to qualify @ 1.64 - to trade if they lose to France
Benzema top scorer @ 17 - to trade
Ibrahimovic top scorer @ 48 - to trade
No comments:
Post a Comment